Gold (XAUUSD) Morning Thoughts Sep 11, 2025 - CPI DAY

XAU/USD RECAP & TRADE Plan for US CPI

Yessterday Gold bounced to 3657 where 1st intraday resistance was seen and consolidation act by bulls and bears failed to sustained above 3657 that ultimately draged the gold to 1st support of the day 3628 once again. Now 3633 can be seen as pivot strong hold above or bellow can set the direction. Overall HH & HL scnario keeping Gold bullish. A short CPI plan is given that can be traded once news affect/volatility is passed and stable direction is witnessed.

Current: 3,633 USD | Bias: Uptrend intact

Key Levels

• Resistance: 3,665
• Pivot: 3,633
• 20-SMA support: 3,620
• Demand zone: 3,600

Trade Entries

1. Negative CPI (USD↑ → Gold↓)

   • Sell-stop: 3,629
   • Targets: 3,600 → 3,580
   • Stop: 3,641

2. Soft/In-line CPI (USD↓ → Gold↑)

   • Buy-stop: 3,639
   • Targets: 3,665 → 3,680
   • Stop: 3,628

Risk & Execution

• Risk 0.5–1% per side; small lots around print
• Widen stops 1–2 ticks for slippage
• If price holds 3,630–3,640 for 15 min post-CPI, stand aside
• Watch DXY & 10 yr yields for momentum cues